Main Speakers'
Abstracts :
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Hans Joachim Schellnhuber
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Informations about H.J.Schellnhuber |
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Read the Summary |
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Document(s) Presentation : schellnhuber.pdf |
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Understanding and Managing Planetary Complexity
The Earth System has evolved over billions of years through strong
interactions between the geosphere and the biosphere. Global
industrialization has recently pushed this process into a new stage
where humankind is dominating the planetary biogeochemical cycles. The
most severe - yet unintentional - consequence is anthropogenic climate
change that will profoundly affect nature and civilization on Earth.
Coping with this crisis is possible if we dramatically improve our
understanding of the systems involved and generate novel strategies for
managing environmental complexity at all relevant scales. Solving the
climate problem may actually bring about a transition to global
sustainability where humankind is widely controlling their own
subsistence conditions.
The lecture will attempt to be both general, by addressing the big
co-evolutionary picture, and specific, by providing the following
examples of pertinent scientific challenges: calculation of "habitable zones" for Earth-like planets; analysis of highly nonlinear palaeo-climate dynamics as reflected in proxy time series from ice cores; identification of "tipping points", teleconnections, and feedbacks in the current Earth System; modelling of bifurcations and deterministic chaos in the Asian monsoon; representation of climate system complexity in coupled atmosphere-oceans-biosphere simulators; integration of the "human dimensions" (especially semi-rational decision making) in total Earth System models; evaluation of induced technological innovation for climate protection (especially greenhouse gas emissions reduction); exploration of societal stability with respect to global warming pressure; and anticipation of long-term trends in human auto-evolution, based on deliberate "amendment" of nature.
Several of the issues addressed will eventually require approaches that transcend traditional disciplinary thinking. In particular, a Manhattan Project-type concerted research effort – considering and quantifying all major feedbacks in the Earth System – is needed to assess the likelihood of anthropogenic "runaway greenhouse" dynamics. This task can only be fulfilled with the help of powerful tools as developed in modern complexity science. Similar methodologies will be instrumental when it comes to analyzing the principal options for inducing technological innovation in the world energy system. Without such highly nonlinear interventions, all climate protection policies are bound to fail. Finally, the objectives and risks of auto-evolution cannot be addressed within a purely scientific framework. This is demonstrated by the inadequate current debate on geoengineering schemes (like deliberate sulfur contamination of the stratosphere) for greenhouse effect containment. The true limits of "improving" both the design and the crew of spaceship Earth can only be assessed through a fundamental, unprecedented trialogue between philosophy, ethics and science. |
